As they size up whom to cast their ballot for in the presidential election on November 5th, Hispanic voters nationwide are becoming more and more like other U.S. voters, focusing more attention on pocketbook issues, like the economy and inflation, said a leading expert on the nation’s Hispanic vote.
“As you get to the second and third generation, they begin to vote very much like the rest of the electorate and so they’re largely driven by economic considerations, particularly the price of food and the price of housing, ” said Florida International University political science professor Eduardo Gamarra during an interview on WLRN’s South Florida Roundup with host Tim Padgett.
In talking about the presidential contest, Gamarra said former President Donald Trump may have gained support among Hispanic voters since 2020, but that “hidden” Kamala Harris vote may have emerged among Hispanics who may not readily admit they are backing her.
“[Hispanics] might identify on some things with Trump but they’re not going to tell you because they’re going to be ashamed. And, I think that is transcending into the general electorate as well,” said Gamarra, who also leads FIU’s Latino Public Opinion Forum.
The latest polls of Hispanic voters nationally show Harris with a significant lead over Trump, but that advantage for a Democrat is far less than in previous presidential elections.
Harris is leading 54%-40% in last month’s NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, with 6% unsure or undecided. But her 14-point lead is lower than past Democratic presidential candidates in 2012 (39 points), 2016 (50 points) and 2020 (36 points).
A Pew Research Center poll showed similar findings: Half (54%) support Harris, while a smaller share (38%) supporting Trump.
In Florida, it was the opposite. The latest Marist Florida poll shows Trump is leading Harris among statewide Latino voters, 58% – 40%. In 2020, Biden (53%) fared far better than Trump (46%) with the same group of voters.
A recent nationwide poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that a solid majority of Hispanic women have a positive opinion of Harris and a negative view of Trump, but Hispanic men are more divided on both candidates.
In a sign of the importance of Hispanic voters, Harris and Trump agreed to town hall events to discuss issues of importance to this bloc of voters.
Harris last Thursday night met with undecided Hispanic Voters in Las Vegas at a town hall televised by the Univision network. Trump will be at a town hall Wednesday in Miami that is also hosted by Univision.
Gamarra joined WLRN’s Tim Padgett on the show. Below are highlights of their conversations.
READ MORE: Why Democrats will face even more challenges with Latino voters in the coming year
Padgett: I want to start with Vice President Harris’ Hispanic town hall [Thursday] night. She’s the one all the pundits said needed to get more serious about courting the Hispanic vote. She does have a sizable lead over Trump among Hispanics – 54 percent to 40 percent in a recent NBC poll – but that’s still well below the share President Biden won four years ago, and in a tight race like this that could matter quite a bit. Do you think she made up ground in the hour she spent with undecided Hispanic voters or do you think all the negative comments on Univision’s YouTube page are more indicative of how things went?
Gamarra: It’s always hard to measure the impact of events like the one held [Thursday] night. And, my sense is that it probably didn’t make any difference. But, at the same time, I was really quite surprised by watching the YouTube comments. I didn’t find a single positive comment and that tells you one of two things. That Republicans came out in the drovesin the comments, but it also tells you that there’s no team on the democratic side to respond.
Padgett: Is that indicative perhaps of perhaps a troubling fact that the democratic party is still taking the latino vote Hispanic vote for granted?
Gamarra: I’ve always said that the Democrats, one, always take Hispanics for granted, that’s a huge mistake. Secondly they are always late and, in this case, you shouldn’t be courting hispanics two weeks from the elections; this should have been an ongoing effort from the very beginning. I think that’s probably my main criticism of the Democrats. They still take us for granted and they start way too late.
Padgett: It’s no surprise that Harris held her Hispanic town hall out west – where she does much better with Hispanic blocs like Mexican-Americans than she and the Democrats do with blocs like Cuban-Americans here in Florida. But she’s been having a hard time sealing the deal with Hispanics even out in states like Nevada and Arizona. The last time you and I spoke about this on the show last December, you emphasized economic anxieties – especially the fact, for example, that Hispanics are more likely to rent housing, and so inflation was really pounding them. But what has been pushing Mexicans and other non-Florida Hispanic voters away from Harris and the Democrats in this election cycle?
Gamarra: Well, remember we’re talking about Hispanics who vote in other words hispanics who are american citizens. And, there’s a really interesting set of studies that looks at hispanics generationally. As you get to the second and third generation, they begin to vote very much like the rest of the electorate and so they’re largely driven by economic considerations, particularly the price of food and the price of housing. Those things are really impacting latinos. For example, [Thursday] night there was a very interesting Exchange. One which I think Vice President Harris sort of missed an opportunity. It was an exchange about prices this woman was telling her she sees all the figures about how great our economy is doing, but for her, it’s still the price that she has to pay when she goes and buys gas or when she goes to the supermarket. Instead of using that as a moment to really tell the story about how this economy has transformed, she tried to develop empathy with her and I don’t think it worked very well. This is the key issue for Hspanics who are U.S. citizens.
Padgett: At the same time – while we know Trump is especially popular with Florida Hispanics because of the communism and socialism issue – is he doing any better with those non-Florida Hispanics, like Mexicans, than he did in 2016 or 2020 – in spite of or perhaps even because of, his promise to deport every undocumented migrant once he takes office again?
Gamarra: It’s very interesting because he has gained some traction with Hispanics but certainly not as much as people assume. That’s why I am being cautious about poll results. We think that he’s had about a three percent boost since 2020. Trying to explain that 3% boost is what I’m sort of devoting my time to. What we’re finding is issues that are related to the economy primarily. But I do think that there’s something that maybe we’re missing. I know a lot of surveys have been looking at this and it is that there is an enormous gender gap among Hispanics. When we ask, for example, “how important is abortion in your decision to vote,” there is almost a 20% gap in gender. I’m beginning to talk about a hidden Kamala vote in the Hispanic bloc. In other words, it’s people that might identify with Trump on some things, but they are not going to tell you because they’re going to be ashamed or what have you. I think that is transcending into the general electorate as well.
Padgett: Trump as I mentioned will be holding his Hispanic town hall here in Miami – a much friendlier Hispanic venue for him. What are you expecting from him [Wednesday] – and what does HE need to do or say to Hispanics, especially those non-Florida Hispanics – to pull enough of that vote away from Harris to make a difference in those battleground states like Nevada and North Carolina?
Gamarra: Donald Trump is Donald Trump and it doesn’t really matter how well you coach what you tell him.His Advisors always say the same right: they prepare him for debates, but Trump does whatever he wants to do in these, and and he will do the same during the town hall [Wednesday]. He will essentially go back to the very same things that he’s been talking about. I don’t know maybe Univision will do as good a job on Wednesday as they did this [Thursday] to find difficult questions for him.
Padgett: I also wanted to discuss with you where Florida and especially South Florida Hispanic voters find themselves now that this state is RED. Since Florida’s 30 electoral votes are now a foregone conclusion, does the Florida Hispanic vote really matter anymore when it comes to presidential elections?
Gamarra: I think it does matter and certainly people need to go out and vote. The main issue is, for example, some of the predictions that Miami-Dade will become solid red and so on…That may not be the case. Urban Florida may once again reassert its Democratic identity. We’re seeing some issues that may in fact be moving part of the population that voted red in 2022 back to the Democratic fold. And, let’s remember, Tim, that we have had elections that have had a very low voter turnout, especially among some hispanics, not cubans. We are expecting a very high turnout in November. And, if there is a very high turnout among Hispanics, it will favor the Democratic party.
The transcription has been edited for brevity. You can listen to the full conversation above or wherever you get your podcasts by searching: The South Florida Roundup.