Fact check: Baldwin misleads with ad saying Hovde proposed cuts to Social Security benefits

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Ah, Social Security. The third rail of politics. Its coffers are running low, but a large majority of Americans like it, and thus, politicians who talk about cutting it are wandering into risky territory.

Perhaps that’s why U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisconsin, has attacked Republican businessman Eric Hovde — who’s running to unseat her in November — over his statements about it, both old and new.

As Election Day nears and their race heats up, Baldwin’s campaign on Oct. 7, 2024 released an ad claiming Hovde “just proposed cutting Social Security by 28%.” The next day, speaking at a luncheon co-sponsored by the Milwaukee Press Club and Rotary Club of Milwaukee, Hovde hit back, saying he has “never” said he wants to cut Social Security benefits and that he does not “want to take older people’s Social Security away.”

So, did Hovde really just propose cutting Social Security by 28%?

PolitiFact Wisconsin dug in, and found that while the claim from Baldwin’s campaign stretches the facts, Hovde’s position on what he wants to do with it isn’t entirely clear, either.

Let’s take a look.

Baldwin’s math

We’ll get the easy part out of the way first: Hovde didn’t literally propose cutting Social Security 28%. So how did Baldwin’s team come up with the figure?

U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin makes remarks as Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is schedule to speak at Laborfest 2024 hosted by labor unions and union members of the Milwaukee Area Labor Council on Monday September 2, 2024 at the Henry Maier Festival Park in Milwaukee, Wis.

When asked for evidence to back up the claim, campaign spokesperson Andrew Mamo pointed primarily to an Oct. 3, 2024 WUWM interview in which Hovde says he’d pull “all government programs” back to what was spent on them in 2019.

The spokesperson cited a March 23, 2023 analysis from the libertarian Cato Institute that examined Congressional Budget Office data, which showed spending on Social Security retirement benefits increased from $893 billion in 2019 to nearly $1.2 trillion in 2023.

Using a Congressional Budget Office projection that baseline spending will increase on average 4.8% annually over the next decade, Baldwin’s campaign did the math to estimate Social Security retirement spending will increase to $1.24 trillion this year — meaning a return to $893 billion, or what was spent in 2019, would be a 28% cut.

Hovde’s comments

Now, let’s look at what Hovde has said on the matter.

The Baldwin ad features an April 24, 2012 appearance by Hovde, then in his first run for U.S. Senate, at the Milwaukee Press Club, where he was asked if he favors “either raising the retirement age and/or cutting benefits for those who are considered wealthy.” Hovde answered, “I favor both.”

In a July 19, 2012 interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel editorial board, Hovde laid out his position during that race: For people 50 or older, their Social Security benefits would stay the same. People under 50 would add two years to their retirement age, people under 40 would add two more, and so on. And, he said, “somebody like me may not receive much Social Security payment,” referring to the idea of cutting benefits for wealthier individuals.

That was in 2012 — a dozen years ago. What about during his current campaign?

Hovde has several times suggested pulling back federal spending to 2019 levels, responding to a question at the Oct. 8, 2024 luncheon of whether “across the board, all government would scaled back,” by saying, “All you have to do is go to the budget that was in 2019 and pull those levels right back again, pre-COVID levels.”

He’s resisted the implication that that means cutting Social Security benefits.

Hovde mentioned Baldwin’s ad at the Oct. 8, 2024 luncheon, saying he supports raising the retirement age for younger people because life expectancy has increased from when the Social Security system was first implemented.

“Instead, we’ve got an ad saying I want to take older people’s Social Security away. Of course I don’t want to take older people’s Social Security away,” he said.

He also put out a statement about the ad, writing, “I do not, and will not, touch the benefits of anyone who is currently receiving Social Security or is nearing retirement.”

“To keep Social Security solvent for future generations, we will have to make changes,” he writes later in the statement, “but let me emphasize again, these changes would only apply to younger generations, specifically those under 40.”

So here’s the rub: Hovde has said he’d like to pull government spending back to 2019 levels, which would presumably have an effect on Social Security — at the least, on the agency that manages it. But he’s also stated multiple times that he does not want to cut current Social Security benefits — which chips away at the accuracy of the claim in the Baldwin ad.

Hovde campaign spokesperson Zachary Bannon did not respond to an email seeking to clarify whether returning federal spending to 2019 levels would include Social Security benefit spending.

Our ruling

The Baldwin ad claimed that Hovde “just proposed cutting Social Security by 28%.”

Mostly False

While Hovde has called more than once to pull government spending back to 2019 levels, which could have implications on Social Security funding in general, he has not specifically proposed cutting retirement benefits by that amount.

In this campaign, in fact, he’s said he would not seek to cut Social Security retirement benefits, pushing instead to raise the retirement age for younger people.

Our definition of Mostly False is a statement that contains an element of truth but ignores critical facts that would give a different impression.

That fits here.