Inflation slowed sharply over the summer, but as it gets close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, improvement will get harder to come by.
The PCE index, the Fed preferred inflation barometer, is forecast to rise a mild 0.2% in September.
The year-over-year increase could slip to 2.1% from 2.2%.
The so-called core PCE index that strips out food and energy is forecast to rise a sharper 0.3% to mark the largest gain in five months.
The core rate is viewed by the Fed as the best barometer of future inflation trends in the entire economy. Food and gas prices can swing up and down and exaggerate inflation trends in the short run.
Whatever the case, the Fed is primed to cut interest rates again next week and the PCE report is unlikely to sway the central bank to hold off.