Last week, you might have seen that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to US$223 in the past week. Apple reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$391b and statutory earnings per share of US$6.08, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Apple
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Apple’s 32 analysts is for revenues of US$414.8b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 6.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 19% to US$7.40. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$420.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.40 in 2025. So it’s pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there’s been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$242, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Apple, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$300 and the most bearish at US$184 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Apple shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Apple’s past performance and to peers in the same industry. It’s pretty clear that there is an expectation that Apple’s revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.3% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Apple is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The most obvious conclusion is that there’s been no major change in the business’ prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Apple’s revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$242, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Apple going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we’ve discovered 2 warning signs for Apple that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.