Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited.
Indian equities are likely to begin Thursday’s session on a cautious to mildly mixed note, as markets attempt to stabilize after three consecutive days of decline. While select global cues and early indications from GIFT Nifty suggest the possibility of a tentative bounce, overall sentiment remains fragile amid persistent foreign fund outflows, currency weakness, and subdued risk appetite.
On 21st January, benchmark indices extended their losing streak. The Nifty 50 slipped below the 25,200 mark, while the Sensex ended lower amid volatile intraday moves. Selling pressure remained broad-based, with financials, IT, and select consumption stocks bearing the brunt. Midcap and smallcap indices continued to underperform, reflecting reduced appetite for riskier assets. Market breadth stayed negative, underscoring weak underlying sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty is struggling to regain lost ground after breaking below its recent consolidation range. The 25,250–25,300 zone now acts as immediate resistance, and any recovery towards this band may face selling pressure. On the downside, 25,000 remains a critical psychological and technical support. A decisive break below this level could open the door for further downside towards 24,800–24,900 in the near term. Momentum indicators remain weak, though oversold conditions could allow for short-lived relief rallies.
The Bank Nifty continues to show relative resilience but remains below key resistance levels. The index has failed to reclaim the 59,700–60,000 zone, keeping sentiment around banking stocks cautious. Immediate support lies near 58,500–58,600, while any upside is likely to be capped unless there is improvement in earnings visibility and broader market confidence.
Flows continue to be a key driver. FIIs remain net sellers, exerting pressure on benchmark indices, while DIIs are providing selective support, preventing sharper declines. The India VIX remains elevated, signalling expectations of higher intraday volatility.
Overall, markets may see a hesitant opening with a negative to neutral bias on 22nd January. Traders are likely to remain selective and focus on strict risk management, while investors may wait for stability near key support levels before adding fresh exposure.