Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.18%), more commonly called SpaceX, has taken investors on a roller-coaster ride during its first couple of weeks as a publicly traded company. This likely surprised nobody, since there was so much hype before the IPO on June 12. But what about the coming months? By the end of 2026, SpaceX’s stock will have had time to stabilize, but I predict it won’t be in a place that bulls love.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
How big is the market’s appetite for risk?
When you have a company like SpaceX, which isn’t producing any profits, isn’t growing super-fast, and is mostly promising investors a share of a big future, how well the stock does relates directly to the market’s risk appetite. This can change by the day, and currently, we’re in a downturn for risk appetite.
The move to caution may increase as we get closer to November’s midterm elections. And growing skepticism about corporate spending on artificial intelligence (AI) could further dampen investors’ appetite for risk. SpaceX is partly an AI company as a chunk of its business is xAI, the company behind Grok. SpaceX acquired xAI not long before it went public, and it’s raising significant money to build out its AI computing footprint.
Like many of the AI hyperscalers, there hasn’t been a meaningful return on investment yet, and it’s a lot of spending now to secure the future. However, the difference between SpaceX and some of the hyperscalers is that it doesn’t have as strong a base business to generate cash.
Space Exploration TechnologiesToday’s Change(7.18%) $11.01Current Price$164.24Key Data PointsMarket Cap$2.2TDay’s Range$151.76 – $166.1652wk Range$147.11 – $225.64Volume3KAvg Vol204.2M
This could be the Achilles’ heel of SpaceX’s stock. Its current cash cow, Starlink, can’t fund all of its parent company’s aspirations in AI and space exploration. This may cause the sentiment for the shares to turn negative, sinking their price. But by how much?
Wall Street’s current estimates for 2026’s revenue are about $37 billion. Expensive stocks trade for 20 times sales. Best-in-class stocks with huge upside and a safe market may trade for 30 to 40 times sales.
If SpaceX traded for 50 times sales, that would price the stock at a market cap of $1.85 trillion, assuming it hits analyst growth projections, and that would be down about 14.5% from Monday’s close. That same drop would put the share price at $140, below the stock’s opening price of $150 on June 12. I wouldn’t be surprised if SpaceX shares are far lower than that in six months.