Volatility has been the name of the game so far this year. And I’m not talking just about the stock market. Projections for what the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will be have also been all over the map.As a case in point, in January, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonprofit organization that advocates for seniors, predicted a 2027 Social Security COLA of 2.5%. By May, TSCL’s estimate had jumped to 3.9%. Independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson predicted a 2027 COLA of 4.2%, which would rank as the fourth-highest increase since 1990.
What will your 2027 Social Security COLA really be? Here are the best estimates right now.
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A moving target
There’s a simple reason for the tremendous volatility in Social Security COLA projections. Inflation estimates have risen and fallen along with oil and gas prices. And those prices have whipsawed as the status of the Iran war changed.
TSCL’s latest projection is for a 2027 Social Security COLA of 3.8%, significantly higher than the 2.8% increase in benefits received this year. Johnson slashed her recent estimate to 3.7% from 4.7% the prior month because a steep drop in energy prices caused inflation to decline in June.
Meanwhile, on July 14, AARP announced that it projects a 2027 COLA of 3.6%. This marked the first COLA prediction from the nonprofit organization that serves individuals ages 50 and older.
But there’s still a high level of uncertainty about what will happen next in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. A lasting peace agreement would likely lead to a significant decline in 2027 COLA projections. On the other hand, an escalation in hostilities could drive COLA estimates higher, perhaps to above 4%.
What these estimates mean for you
The average monthly Social Security benefit for a retired worker was $2,084.40 in June 2026, according to the Social Security Administration. If AARP’s COLA projection of 3.6% turns out to be correct, that would translate to a “raise” of roughly $75.04 per month, or $900.48 for the year, for the average retiree. The increase would be $79.21 per month, or $950.52 for the full year, based on TSCL’s estimated 2027 COLA of 3.8%.
Perhaps the best COLA projection to use for now, though, is Johnson’s middle-of-the-road 3.7%. This estimate would mean a Social Security increase of $77.12 per month, or $925.44 for the year, for the average retired worker.
There’s good news for these projections related to the cost of healthcare in retirement. The standard monthly Medicare Part B premium is expected to increase by 3.25%. Net Social Security income could rise in real terms after Medicare deductions — something that hasn’t happened frequently in recent years.
Another positive is that the 2027 Social Security COLA could keep up with the inflation retirees actually experience, more than it typically does. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), the inflation metric used to calculate the COLA, isn’t designed to reflect costs incurred by older individuals. As a result, the COLA usually doesn’t keep pace with the inflation retirees experience. This year, though, higher energy prices due to the Iran war are impacting younger and older Americans relatively equally, making the CPI-W more accurate for retirees than it usually is.
A waiting game
Any 2027 Social Security COLA estimate should be taken with a grain of salt. The actual benefit increase won’t be announced until mid-October. A lot can happen between now and then.
New rounds of COLA estimates will be released in August and September, following the monthly inflation updates. If the Iran war keeps oil prices elevated, expect forecasts from TSCL, Johnson, and AARP to rise.