[This morning’s conclusion]Connecting this morning’s market in a single line:BOJ raises rates from 1.00% to 1.25%?However, 2 members dissented, and no future rate hike pace was specified?Market judges it is not as hawkish as expected?Yen selling, Dollar buying?Dollar-Yen moves to the high 157 range?Meanwhile, US 10-year Treasury yield is back in the 5% range?Even so, semiconductor stocks are bought and NASDAQ rises?Crude oil also fell but maintained over $100is the flow.A major point of focus until yesterday was,”If the BOJ raises rates, will the Yen strengthen, leading to an unwinding of the Yen carry trade?”However, in the foreign exchange market on the 18th, there was no movement indicating large-scale Yen buying, at least immediately after the rate hike.Despite the BOJ raising the policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, the Yen was sold instead, and the Dollar-Yen rose to the high 157 range.In other words, what the market is looking at is not just “did they raise rates this time?”When will the BOJ raise rates next?How many more times will the FRB raise rates?The market’s focus is shifting to the “next move” for both Japan and the US.[Source: Reuters]?? What has changed since yesterdayThe biggest thing is thatBOJ rate hike = Yen appreciationdid not happen as the textbook reaction.The BOJ decided on a rate hike by a 7-2 vote.However, two members dissented, and Governor Ueda did not provide a clear schedule for future rate hikes.The market took this as “they raised rates, but the pace of tightening beyond that is still unreadable.”As a result, the Yen was sold instead.From here on, it is not “will the BOJ raise rates?” butBOJ’s additional rate hike paceVSFRB’s additional rate hike pacea relative comparison that will become important.[Source: Reuters]? Forex: Yen weakened despite rate hikeThe BOJ raised the policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25%.However, the Dollar-Yen rose instead, and according to Reuters, it temporarily advanced to 157.84 Yen, indicating a stronger Dollar and weaker Yen.The reason is that while the rate hike itself was largely priced in beforehand, there were two dissenting votes and no clear hawkish stance shown regarding future policy.In other words, the market is looking at”how fast will they raise it from here on”rather than”it became 1.25%”.Furthermore, the FRB also raised rates by 0.25% this week.Because expectations for additional rate hikes remain on the US side as well, the Japan-US interest rate gap will not necessarily shrink rapidly just because the BOJ raised rates.[Source: Reuters]? US Interest Rates/Bonds: 10-year Treasury back in the 5% rangeUS Treasury yields, which had fallen on the 17th, rose again on the 18th.Comparing by the same series from the US Treasury,US 2-year bond: 4.67% ? 4.76%US 10-year bond: 4.94% ? 5.01%US 30-year bond: 5.29% ? 5.34%became.Yields are rising from short-term to ultra-long-term.The background is thatFRB rate hike?Crude oil over $100?Vigilance against re-accelerating inflation?Expectations for additional rate hikeshave not yet disappeared.The market is pricing in about a 55% probability of another rate hike at the October FOMC.In other words, this week’s FOMC was not”raise rates and finish”.[Source: US Treasury, Reuters]? US Stocks: NASDAQ rose even with 10-year at 5%US stocks were mixed on the 18th.NY Dow: 51,682.64Change from previous day -95.40-0.18%S&P 500: 7,650.50+12.74+0.17%NASDAQ: 26,522.55+104.25+0.40%Semiconductor stocks rose, and technology was the strongest sector in the S&P 500.However, in the market as a whole, there were more declining stocks than rising ones.In other words, it is a market where”semiconductors and tech are supporting the index”rather than”US stocks as a whole are strong”.The fact that NASDAQ is rising despite the US 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 5% is an important point this morning.It is not that everything is being sold because interest rates are high, but funds remain where there are growth expectations.[Source: Reuters]? Japanese Stocks: Temperature difference between Nikkei and TOPIXThe Nikkei Stock Average on the 18th was65,018.95 Yen+882.70 Yen+1.38%Meanwhile,TOPIX: 4,091.14-3.05-0.07%became.Although the Nikkei average was significantly higher, TOPIX fell slightly.In other words, Japanese stocks as a whole did not rise all at once.While stocks with a large contribution to the Nikkei average, such as semiconductors and AI, pushed up the index, looking at a wide range of stocks, strengths and weaknesses are divided.TOPIX was relatively strong on the 17th, but on the 18th, it returned to Nikkei average/semiconductor dominance.A fairly intense rotation is occurring even within Japanese stocks.? Crude Oil: Remained over $100 even after fallingCrude oil on the 18th calmed down somewhat from its previous sharp rise.However, it remains at a high level exceeding $100.The fact that China worked on Iran to curb attacks by the Houthis on Saudi oil facilities caused supply anxiety to recede slightly, which pushed down the price.What is important is thatcrude oil prices fell?Middle East supply problems have been solvedis not the case.It is necessary to look at not only the price of crude oil itself, but also the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, tanker shortages, insurance premiums, and transport times together.[Source: Reuters]? Tankers/Logistics: Possibility of lasting longer than crude oilIn the energy market, transport capacity is becoming more important than crude oil prices themselves.When supply risks from the Middle East increase,reduce dependence on the Middle East?procure crude oil from long distances such as Brazil and Guyana?voyage distance increases?number of tankers required to transport the same amount increases?tanker freight rates riseis the flow.Therefore, even if crude oil prices fall temporarily, logistics costs will not necessarily normalize immediately.Crude oil?tanker freight rates?diesel?insurance premiumsneed to be viewed as a set.[Source: Reuters]? Gold/Precious Metals/GrainsGold has remained firm despite this week’s FRB rate hike.Normally,interest rate rise?attractiveness of gold, which does not generate interest, decreasestends to happen.However, currently,geopolitical risk?high crude oil prices?inflation vigilance?uncertainty about monetary policyare supporting safe-haven demand.In other words, for gold,selling pressure due to high interest ratesVSbuying demand due to geopolitics/inflationthe tug-of-war continues.Regarding silver and platinum, since they are more susceptible to industrial demand than gold, look at both the global economy and interest rates.Although there is no sudden change in grains as of now like in crude oil, if the high prices of diesel, fertilizer, and transport costs are prolonged, there is a possibility that it will spread to production costs with a delay.? Crypto Assets: Bitcoin rose about 6%Bitcoin rose about 5.9% on the 18th.Crypto asset-related stocks also rose significantly.This is also a sense of discomfort in this morning’s market.FRB rate hike?US 10-year Treasury at 5%?concerns about prolonged high interest ratesenvironment is not originally easy for crypto assets.Even so, Bitcoin is rising.In other words, currently,risk-off for everything because of high interest ratesis not the case.It is necessary to look at the possibility that funds are returning selectively even among risk assets.However, do not judge that it has shifted to a full-scale fund inflow phase based on just one day’s price movement.[Source: Reuters]? Where is the money now?This is quite interesting.The US MMF balance for the week ending September 16, published by ICI on the 17th, wasabout 7.97 trillion dollars?about 7.92 trillion dollarsdecreased by about 52 billion dollars.Meanwhile, according to LSEG Lipper’s weekly data through September 18, about 31.4 billion dollars flowed out of US stock funds.This was the 4th consecutive week of fund outflows.However, looking inside stocks,financialsconsumer discretionarytechnologyfunds flowed into sector funds such as these.Furthermore, about 3.5 billion dollars flowed into short- to medium-term US Treasury funds.In other words, the money now isnot “fleeing everything from stocks”nor”returning everything to stocks”.Fund outflows from stocks as a whole?on the other hand, selecting tech, financials, etc.?funds also into short/medium-term government bonds?partial fund outflows from MMFsis the state.What is quite important is that”it is no longer a market that just flees to cash”is the case.While holding bonds that can earn high interest rates, in stocks, only choose those with growth expectations.The current market has a very strong selective color.[Source: ICI, Reuters]?? Discomfort in today’s marketThere are two today.? Yen weakened despite BOJ rate hikeNormally,BOJ rate hike?Japanese interest rates rise?attractiveness of holding Yen rises?Yen appreciationis easy to think.However, in reality, the Yen weakened.The market is looking at the “speed of the next rate hike” rather than “this rate hike”.? NASDAQ and Bitcoin rose despite US 10-year at 5%This is also not according to the textbook.Even though a yield of about 5% can be obtained with US 10-year bonds, buying also entered tech and crypto assets.In other words, the market is not entirely risk-off.”Even in a world with 5% safe assets, funds are being put into things that can expect returns higher than that”is the selection that is occurring.? Market PDCAPrevious point of focus:BOJ rate hike?Yen appreciation?will it lead to Yen carry unwinding?Result:At least in the foreign exchange market on the 18th, it did not become a reaction indicating large-scale Yen buying.Rather,BOJ rate hike?2 people dissented?future rate hike pace unclear?Yen selling?Dollar-Yen in the high 157 rangebecame.Revision of view:When looking at the Yen carry,looking only at “did the BOJ raise rates?”is insufficient.From now on,BOJ’s additional rate hike paceVSFRB’s additional rate hike paceand look at the actual Japan-US interest rate gap.? What to look at todaySince today is Saturday, the Japanese and US physical stock markets are closed.On the weekend, look at “what will be carried over to Monday”.? Dollar-Yen around 158 YenIf the Yen weakens further, there is a possibility that vigilance against restraint statements by Japanese authorities or foreign exchange intervention will increase.? US 10-year Treasury at 5%Is the 5% range temporary, or will it take root?? Crude oil at $100Will it break below $100 due to expectations of diplomatic supply improvement? Or will it rise again?? Strait of Hormuz/TankersWill not only crude oil prices, but actual ship passage and transport capacity recover?? NASDAQ/SemiconductorsWill buying continue even with US 10-year at 5%?? BitcoinIs this 6% rise a temporary buyback, or will it lead to a return of risk money?Next week, US PMI and the UN General Assembly are also scheduled, and both geopolitics and interest rates will continue to move the market.[Source: Reuters][This morning’s summary]This week,FOMC rate hike?BOJ rate hike?Crude oil over $100?US 10-year at 5%quite large materials overlapped at once.Even so, NASDAQ is positive for the week.Bitcoin also rebounded.In other words, the current market is not a simplehigh interest rates?sell everythingis not the case.Rather,”in a world with 5% safe assets, what will you buy anyway?”is becoming a market that selects.And yesterday, one important answer came out regarding the Yen.”If the BOJ raises rates, the Yen will strengthen”was not necessarily the case.The market is already looking beyond this rate hike.When looking at the Yen from now on,BOJ’s next moveVSFRB’s next moveand look at the actual Japan-US interest rate gap.Next week, this comparison seems to be an important axis connecting the Yen, bonds, Japanese stocks, and even the Yen carry.? This report is a personal memo that organizes market movements based on public information. It does not recommend the buying or selling of specific financial products. Since the market is always changing, please check the final investment decision yourself.While connecting world news not as dots but as lines,”Why is this price moving now?” I organize every morning.Usually, I work as a fortune teller in Ginza and Odaiba.While using Sanmeigaku, palmistry, and oracle cards, I help organize love, work, and human relationships.Why does a fortune teller follow finance and world affairs every morning?Simply because it is fun to watch the world move.
