Social Security benefits are a source of income for 68 million seniors, totaling more than $1.5 trillion in payouts annually, according to the Social Security Administration (SSA). So, the fact that it will become insolvent in 10 years is, to say the least, concerning.
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2035 isn’t all that far into the distant future, and the problem is a tough one to solve, said Chris Orestis, president at Retirement Genius and a national retirement expert.
“To keep these programs sustainable, you need three or more workers paying taxes for every one person collecting benefits. That ratio is shrinking, and the negative fiscal impact is growing,” he said. He added that because this is unsustainable, and such a large problem, a combination of changes to the program is likely on the horizon.
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Quick Take: Social Security Changes in 2025
So far in 2025, there have been a lot of changes and shake-ups to government spending, agencies and assistance programs. President Trump and his administration have declared they will protect Social Security but have also made claims that could directly contradict that fact.
Here are a few key takeaways:
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Not only is 2035 a very loose deadline, but it also looks like the unfortunate finish line could be getting closer. There have been proposals for sweeping benefit cuts for retired workers and survivor beneficiaries by 2033.
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The plan to boost some retirees’ Social Security checks in the short term would also exacerbate Social Security’s long-term cash deficit and expedite the timeline even more.
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The SSA announced another plan to institute new identity verification procedures for those who wanted to apply for benefits. Once these changes take effect, you’d have to visit a field office instead of doing so over the phone and have someone verify your identity before you could submit your application. This could be quite problematic for older senior citizens who have difficulty getting around.
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President Trump also reinstated the 100% overpayment recovery rate that had been in place prior to 2024, which enabled the SSA to withhold all of a person’s future checks to recoup an accidental overpayment.
Here are six potential changes that are coming to Social Security sooner than you think.
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Raising the Income Cap
Currently, the income cap on paying into Social Security is set at $175,100. In other words, any earnings over that amount are not taxed for Social Security.
“I think there’s a good chance we’ll hear more about raising or eliminating the income cap on Social Security taxes,” said Paul W. Carlson, an investment and retirement expert and managing partner at Law Firm Velocity.
“There’s a lot of chatter about how higher earners should contribute more,” he said. “This idea has broad public support and could help ensure that higher earners contribute their fair share.”
Raising the Payroll Tax Rate
Right now, the payroll tax rate is set at 12.4%. If you are employed, your employer pays half of this, and you, the employee, pay the other half. If you are self-employed, congratulations, you pay it all. Raising this percentage would, of course, bring in more revenue.
“An increase could help shore up funds,” said Carlson. “But might not be popular since no one likes higher taxes.” So, count this low on the list of likely changes.
Reducing Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLAs)
These are the small increases in benefit amounts that help Social Security keep pace with inflation. For instance, for 2025, the COLA increase is 2.5%. Reducing or eliminating these would reduce payouts. But, said Carlson, that would be a hard sell.
“Many people depend on these adjustments to maintain their quality of life, especially seniors who often face rising healthcare costs,” he said. “If cuts were made, we could see a lot of pushback from the public and advocacy groups.”
Raising the Full Retirement Age (FRA)
The full retirement age is the age set by the government when workers are eligible to receive their full benefits based on their income history. Taking benefits before that age results in a reduced amount. Both Carlson and Orestis said that any change here would have to be nuanced.
“It’s already been pushed back to 67 for those born in 1960 or later,” said Carlson. “Increasing it further would mean people have to wait longer to receive full benefits. That might not sit well with many who are ready to retire but need those benefits sooner.”
Orestis agreed. “The more likely approach to raise the retirement age would be to issue a reduced benefit and/or increased retirement age schedule targeted at a point in the future that would impact people not yet on the program,” he said.
Eliminating Taxes on Social Security Income
On the campaign trail, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump promised to eliminate income taxes on Social Security. According to the Social Security Administration, about 40% of people who receive Social Security benefits must pay income tax on them, usually because of other income sources increasing their annual earnings. In 2023, that generated nearly $51 billion for the fund.
“In the short term, this plan would offer relief only to high-income seniors. Lower-income seniors who don’t meet the income threshold for Social Security taxes would see no benefit as they already don’t pay into this tax,” said Orestis.
He said it would also increase financial pressure on workers who would likely bear the burden of funding this gap through higher payroll taxes. And worse, it would jeopardize the program’s solvency over the long term. So, like many political promises, this one might be conveniently forgotten.
A 20% Slash in Benefits
This, of course, is the doomsday scenario that everyone wants to avoid: the 20% cut in benefits that insolvency in a decade will force, according to Congress’s Ways and Means Committee.
“Honestly, if we don’t see any changes, yes, we could be looking at a 20% cut in benefits starting in 2034,” said Carlson. “People need to understand that once the funds are depleted, the law says they can only pay out what they take in from taxes. So, if nothing is done, everyone’s checks will shrink significantly. It’s a scary thought for anyone relying on Social Security for their retirement income.”
And for better or worse, that nuclear option will likely force a combination of changes.
Caitlyn Moorhead contributed to the reporting for this article.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 6 Things Experts Say Could Happen To Social Security Over The Next 10 Years