The stock market kicked off November on a high note after slumping to close out last month, while uncertainty about the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates hang over the market.
A sharp downturn on Thursday, led by a sell-off in technology stocks, sent major indexes into negative territory for October. The S&P 500 and Dow snapped five-month winning streaks while the Nasdaq Composite failed to post a monthly gain for the first time since July.
Third-quarter earnings season will wind down in November with some big names including Nvidia (NVDA) and Home Depot (HD). But the presidential election on Nov. 5 is likely to dominate headlines and move markets most profoundly this month. Below, we look at some stocks that could see big price movements.
Nvidia
Nvidia is scheduled to report its third-quarter results on Nov. 20, and investor attention will be squarely focused on the world’s largest chip company in the lead-up to those results.
Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on the long-term potential for Nvidia’s stock, which nearly 4 in 5 analysts rate a “Buy,” according to Wall Street Journal data. Bank of America (BofA) analysts in a recent note called Nvidia “a generational opportunity,” citing its dominant position within an artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator market that they expect to quadruple in size to $280 billion by 2027.
U.S. cloud providers are expected to spend more than $200 billion on infrastructure this year, with much of that spending going toward the data centers and chips that train and run AI models. Nvidia, with an estimated 80% share of the AI chip market, is by far the largest beneficiary of that spending.
Nvidia stock has gained nearly 170% this year after surging more than 200% last year. But with the stock’s banner performance has come high expectations. Shares slumped more than 6% the day after Nvidia handily beat second-quarter earnings estimates in late August.
Trump Media & Technology Group
The daily movement of Trump Media & Technology Group’s (DJT) stock has effectively become a proxy for former president Donald Trump’s odds of returning to the White House in January. No other stock is so widely seen as an indicator of voter sentiment, nor does any other company’s fortunes hinge so directly on the outcome of November’s election.
Shares more than doubled in value in October as polls showed Trump closing the gap with Vice President Kamala Harris in national polls. In the lead-up to Nov. 5, DJT’s share price will likely continue to mirror betting odds on popular platforms like PolyMarket, PredictIt, and, as of Monday, even Robinhood (HOOD).
Given how close polls suggest the election will be, DJT is likely to remain volatile, especially if legal challenges to the results play out in courts across the country.
Home Depot
Home improvement retailer Home Depot is due to report quarterly earnings mid-month, and investors will be hoping the results contain signs of a turnaround for the U.S. housing market.
Mortgage rates declined steadily throughout most of the third quarter, falling from around 7% on average in early July to as low as 5.9% in mid-September when the Federal Reserve began cutting its benchmark interest rate.
New home listings reached a three-year high in September 2024, according to data from Realtor.com, as rate cuts and optimism eased the “lock-in effect” of elevated interest rates. At the end of September, there were more homes for sale than at any other time since April 2020. That could bode well for Home Depot, the business of which depends in large part on homeowners making pre-listing improvements.
That said, a rising 10-year Treasury yield has nudged mortgage rates higher in recent weeks. Wall Street has tempered its expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue aggressively cutting rates this year and next. Uncertainty about the presidential election and the impact of each candidate’s policies on the economy have also contributed to the increase in yields. Rising yields could cloud Home Depot’s outlook, as they did for homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI) whose stock sank when its earnings guidance fell short of estimates.
Home Depot shares have risen about 15% so far this year.
Intel
No company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had a tougher year than Intel (INTC). The once-dominant U.S. chipmaker has struggled to maintain its technological edge over international rivals and is now in the middle of a massive turnaround effort.
Intel shares have lost more than 50% of their value this year as the chipmaker has reported massive losses—$16 billion in the third quarter alone—stemming from sluggish demand for computer chips and big expenses at its chip foundry business. The firm’s limited exposure to artificial intelligence has also weighed on sentiment.
CEO Pat Gelsinger has implemented a $10 billion cost-cutting plan, which includes laying off about 15% of the company’s employees and suspending its dividend. Intel’s third-quarter results suggested that effort may be starting to bear fruit. The company beat estimates with its quarterly revenue and its sales outlook.
Still, with the company appearing in dire straits, the vultures are circling. Qualcomm (QCOM) has reportedly considered making an offer to buy at least some of Intel’s assets. Alternative asset manager Apollo Global Management has reportedly offered the company a $5 billion investment.
The presidential election will have consequences for U.S. trade policy and Sino-American relations, both important to Intel insofar as they impact its chief rival, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM). Trump recently vowed to impose stiff tariffs on Taiwan-made semiconductors to support U.S. fabricators like Intel.
Boeing
Boeing’s (BA) 2024 has been nearly as rough as Intel’s.
The jet maker’s stock has fallen 40% this year as it’s dealt with the fallout from a door-plug blowout in early January. The company has burned through billions of dollars in its efforts to retool its operations and revive its public image.
Boeing’s problems were compounded in September when more than 30,000 union employees went on strike, a work stoppage that analysts estimate has cost Boeing as much as $100 million a day. Negotiators at the end of October reached a tentative contract deal that includes a 38% pay increase over the next 4 years, a boosted 401(k) match, and a $12,000 ratification bonus. The proposal does not reinstate Boeing’s defined-benefit pension plan, a key worker demand.
Boeing recently raised more than $21 billion through a public stock offering intended to help the company weather the strike, which has hamstrung manufacturing and, depending on the outcome of a union vote on Nov. 4, could stretch into its third month in November.
Analysts have called ending the strike “a clearing event” that could set the stage for Boeing’s turnaround.