The National Hurricane Center is tracking two systems in the Atlantic basin, including one it said could become a tropical depression later this week.
AccuWeather forecasters said the system approaching the Leeward Islands could strengthen into a tropical storm or even a hurricane, but environmental conditions could help keep this one away from Florida.
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Will Invest 94L become Tropical Storm Nadine?
As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 15, a tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week, the National Hurricane Center said.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent
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Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent
AccuWeather meteorologists have begun to refer to Invest 94L as a “tropical rainstorm” to raise public awareness of the system.
AccuWeather’s forecast is for it to become a tropical storm by Thursday night, early Friday, or, at the earliest, by Thursday afternoon, said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva in a telephone interview Tuesday, Oct. 15.
If it takes a more northerly track, avoiding the mountains in Hispaniola, it could become a strong tropical storm or hurricane Friday or Saturday, DaSilva said.
Wind shear helping protect Florida, this time
“Wind shear should protect Florida from Invest 94L,” DaSilva said. “That’s good news. We definitely don’t need another one.”
If Invest 94L takes a more southerly track, mountains in Hispaniola should tear it apart.
If it tracks even farther south, avoiding Haiti and the Dominican Republic, it’s likely to move west toward Mexico, DaSilva said.
➤ Tropics watch Oct. 15: See latest on what National Hurricane Center is tracking
➤ Will Invest 94L become Tropical Storm or Hurricane Nadine? What Florida residents should know
Invest 94L path tracker
Invest 94L spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What else is the National Hurricane Center tracking?
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This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Invest 94L tracker: Projected path, spaghetti models