We’re only two months into 2026, but Social Security watchers are already casting a wary eye to 2027.
The non-partisan The Senior Citizens League’s monthly projection of Social Security’s Cost of Living Adjustment, or COLA, for the coming year is out and puts the 2027 increase at 2.8%. That’s up 0.3 points from last month’s forecast of 2.5%, but the same COLA Social Security recipients received this year.
The annual COLA, designed to help combat the financial erosion caused by inflation, is based on the percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, for the third quarter of the year (July, August and September). That figure is compiled then compared to the CPI-W for the same period the previous year. The year-over-year difference is the new COLA payable in the coming year.
2026’s 2.8 COLA increased the average Social Security recipient’s benefits by $56 a month.
‘Exacerbate seniors’ financial stress’
Even if 2027’s COLA stays at 2.8% – and that’s unlikely with eight months to go before the final determination – the “paltry figure” would only “exacerbate seniors’ financial stress,” TSCL said.
“The projected 2027 COLA will surely leave seniors dissatisfied and frustrated,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said. “The reality is most older Americans constantly tell us they believe the CPI-W, the measure used to calculate the COLA, underestimates inflation as they see it. Affordability is the popular word around town right now, even among other groups, because most Americans believe inflation is higher than the government claims.”
TSCL’s research shows 58% of America’s 55.8 million seniors have skipped at least one healthcare product or service in the last year to cut costs. Among financially insecure seniors, whose incomes do not cover the essentials, that figure rises to 79%. The top medical services that seniors skip to trim their budgets are dental (42.3%), vision (28.8%), and hearing (19.6%).
One of the main issues is the rising cost of Medicare Part B, which is increasing faster than Social Security benefits. In 2026, Medicare Part B Premium rose by 9.7%, from $185 to $202.90, more than three times the COLA of 2.8 percent. Medicare Part B Premiums also grew faster than the COLA in 2024 and 2025.
Also, Medicare Part B does not cover dental, hearing or vision, forcing seniors to purchase a Medicare Advantage Plan, pay for private insurance or pay out of pocket for those services.
That shortfall is a huge issue for seniors, Benton said.
“Medicare treats dental, vision, and hearing insurance like extras or add-ons for American seniors, but access to these services is essential. Regular, preventive dental care can save you thousands of dollars in the long run, so, as a society, allowing cost to remain a barrier makes no sense. Vision and hearing loss also have meaningful connections to cognitive decline, meaning lack of access to this coverage progressively sabotages quality of life for countless seniors,” she said.