Cooler temperatures may have arrived in Florida this week, but storm-weary residents need to remain alert when it comes to the the tropics, especially since there are a couple of disturbances out there showing potential for development, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
AccuWeather meteorologists said there are “two main areas that are most likely to spur tropical development in the next few days to a week or so, and one or both features could still find a way to impact Florida.”
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The first system is “brewing” in the western Caribbean. The other is in the Atlantic and approaching the Leeward Islands.
The second system emerged as a tropical wave off Africa last week. Chances for development had been fluctuating but have slowly been increasing lately. The National Hurricane Center early Tuesday morning set chances for development at 60% over the next seven days.
Expect those chances to continue to increase as it approaches the Caribbean, especially between Friday and Sunday, according to AccuWeather.
“It is possible for the feature to ramp up quickly to a tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane as it approaches or passes through the Leewards late this week,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said..
On the bright side is that conditions farther west could inhibit further development.
The next named storms of the season will be Nadine and Oscar.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 2 a.m. Oct. 15:
Will Invest94L become Tropical Storm Nadine?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
A well-defined area of low pressure designated as Invest 94L, located over the central tropical Atlantic, is producing occasional showers and thunderstorms. This system remains embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days, the Hurricane Center said.
However, this system is forecast to move generally westward and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week.
A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
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Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent.
AccuWeather meteorologists have begun to refer to Invest 94L as a “tropical rainstorm” to raise public awareness of the system.
Invest 94L spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Will Florida see another tropical storm or hurricane soon?
AccuWeather said two factors could inhibit tropical development that could affect Florida and the southeastern United States:
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The islands of the northern Caribbean.
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A complex weather pattern over the southern Atlantic Ocean, eastern Gulf Coast and Bahamas.
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A storm that interacts with the jet stream, along with an area of high pressure over the Southeast could be steered away.
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However, if the jet stream or area of high pressure weakens, a tropical system could come close to Florida.
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When could Florida feel any impacts from a potential storm?
Any impacts to Florida would probably not be until this weekend at the earliest, AccuWeather meteorologists said.
However, “the same features working to possibly protect Florida from a direct hit by a major tropical system in the next week or so will lead to stiff winds from the east and northeast that will raise seas, create dangerous surf and lead to beach erosion and coastal flooding along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S.”
What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?
Western Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America.
“Based on the latest information we have and studying the situation, the most likely path the brewing feature in the western Caribbean would take would be a more southern one into Central America this weekend,” DaSilva said.
“There still is a scenario where that feature could find a way farther to the north and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, but the chances of that seem to be diminishing,” DaSilva added.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
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Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
When will 2024 Atlantic hurricane season end?
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Tropics update: Will Invest 94L become Nadine? Threats to Florida