The earnings season is all but over, but there’s one report left that has investors treading carefully. Nvidia is set to post fiscal fourth-quarter results after the bell. The chipmaker’s quarterly reports have been mostly bullish for the stock, and the overall market, in recent years. Shares rose after 10 of the last 16 releases. The S & P 500 followed Nvidia higher in nine of those 16 instances. But the bar is higher this time around, with trading desks around Wall Street dishing out lofty guidance numbers that they think will be required to push CEO Jensen Huang’s stock higher. “In fairness, beats haven’t seemed to matter since early 2024; but this time things feel different,” JPMorgan traders wrote, noting the so-called whisper numbers involve a “2+2 quarter (beat the guide by $2b and beat Street expectations for the April-Q guide by $2b).” NVDA 3M mountain Nvidia 3-month chart Nvidia had guided Q4 revenue coming in around $65 billion, while analysts polled by StreetAccount expect the company’s Q1 forecast to reach $72.7 billion. A 2+2 quarter puts the company’s top line at near $67 billion for Q4, while the guidance for the first quarter would have to reach nearly $75 billion. Jefferies also expects a “beat and raise” out of Nvidia, putting its whisper number at $75 billion for fiscal fourth quarter revenue. “These targets appear achievable as supply-chain constraints continue to ease and demand signals accelerate,” the traders there said. Nvidia shares face two potential challenges moving forward, however. The first is diminishing retail trader enthusiasm. Data from Vanda Research shows retail buying heading into Nvidia earnings has been “materially lighter than prior quarters.” Average daily net flows heading into the report stand at $94 million, well below the $186 million in the five days prior to the November release, for example. “This caution likely represents one of two things: (1) tempered expectations around today’s earnings, or (2) investors are waiting for a ‘green light’ to buy,” Vanda wrote. “For what it is worth, this cautious retail behavior mirrors subdued institutional flow and speaks to the broader mood on the Street.” JPMorgan traders also noted that high memory chip prices could pressure Nvidia margins.
Nvidia whisper numbers: Traders expect AI chipmaker to beat Street and guide higher
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