Prediction: Nvidia stock’s post-earnings-release move will largely hinge on news about the H20 chip for China and related Q3 guidance.
Nvidia (NVDA 0.05%) is slated to report its results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended July 27) on Wednesday, Aug. 27, after the market close.
As in recent quarters, the artificial intelligence (AI) technology giant’s upcoming report is arguably the most anticipated of this quarterly earnings season. Nvidia is considered a bellwether, or indicator, for the AI space, and also to some degree for the entire market. This is because not only is the company the largest AI company by market cap, it’s also the largest stock on the S&P 500 index.
Nvidia’s Q2 results will not include any H20 chip sales to China, as the U.S. government’s export controls on these made-for-China data center AI chips spanned the entire quarter.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nvidia’s Q2 guidance and Wall Street’s estimates
| Metric | Q2 Fiscal 2025 Result | Nvidia’s Q2 Fiscal 2026 Guidance | Nvidia’s Projected Growth | Wall Street’s Q2 Fiscal 2026 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street’s Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $30.0 billion | $45.0 billion | 50% | $46.0 billion | 53% |
| Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) | $0.68 | $0.98* | 44% | $1.01 | 48% |
Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q2 2026 ended July 27, 2025. *Calculation by the author based on the metrics for which management provided guidance.
Nvidia’s strong earnings beat track record
Nvidia has a great track record of exceeding Wall Street’s consensus earnings estimates, so the chances seem high that it will do so on Aug. 27.
Following is data for the past 20 quarters, or five years. I also broke out the results of the last four quarters to show the earnings beats have been a little smaller recently.
| Period | Earnings* Results Relative to Wall Street’s Consensus Estimate | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Average) | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Range) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 reported quarters | 18/20 beats = 90% |
11%** |
5% to 32%** |
|
Most recently reported four quarters |
4/4 beats = 100% | 6.9% | 5.3% to 8.5% |
Data source: Nvidia. Calculations by author. *Earnings in the form of adjusted earnings per share (EPS). **Rounded to nearest whole number.
Nvidia’s post-earnings-release stock price movements
Long-term investors should focus on Nvidia’s report — its results, guidance, and management commentary on the earnings call — and not be overly concerned with the stock price movement after the release.
Nvidia’s stock price will continue to rise over the long term as long as the company continues to perform well. Short-term movements in the stock can occur for many reasons unrelated to Nvidia’s underlying business performance, including recessions, trade policy and tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and other macroeconomic events.
That said, here’s how Nvidia stock performed the day after the last nine earnings releases.
| Quarter | Period Ending | Magnitude of Earnings Beat/(Miss)* | Stock Price Change Day After Earnings Release |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 fiscal 2026 | Late April 2025 | 8% | 3.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2025 | Late January 2025 | 5% | (8.5%) |
| Q3 fiscal 2025 | Late October 2024 | 9% | 0.5% |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2024 | 6% | (6.4%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2025 | Late April 2024 | 10% | 9.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2024 | Late January 2024 | 12% | 16.4% |
| Q3 fiscal 2024 | Late October 2023 | 19% |
(2.5%) |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2023 | 32% |
0.1% |
| Q1 fiscal 2024 | Late April 2023 | 18% |
24.4% |
Data sources: Nvidia’s earnings reports, Yahoo! Finance, and YCharts. *Rounded to nearest whole number.
I chose nine quarters for a reason: These are the quarters the company has reported since generative AI burst onto the scene in late 2022, when OpenAI released its ChatGPT chatbot. This new technology lit a fire under the demand for Nvidia’s AI-enabling data center products, which had already been selling well.
Why Nvidia stock doesn’t always rise after an earnings beat
Nvidia’s beating Wall Street’s earnings estimate is no guarantee that its stock will rise, as the chart above shows. There are several reasons for this, including that guidance (relative to Wall Street’s expectations) can affect the stock price as much as, if not more than, the current quarter’s results, and overall market dynamics can influence the stock’s movement.
Wall Street’s expectation for fiscal Q3 guidance
As to guidance, Wall Street is currently modeling for third-quarter revenue of $52.5 billion, or 50% year-over-year growth, and adjusted EPS of $1.19, or 47% year-over-year growth.
Guidance should be particularly interesting as it should include H20 sales, as Nvidia was given the green light by the government to resume sales of these chips. Earlier this month, the U.S. Commerce Department reportedly began issuing export licenses for Nvidia’s H20 chip. In exchange for the licenses, Nvidia must pay 15% of H20 revenue to the government. (Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices, or AMD, struck a similar deal with the government.)
That said, it’s possible that expected H20 sales included in Q3 guidance won’t be as strong as in the past or that investors are expecting. On Friday, The Information reported that “Nvidia has told some of its component suppliers to suspend production work related to the H20.” This move is reportedly due to the Chinese government’s recent directive to the nation’s companies to not buy the chip because of security concerns.
Prediction: An earnings beat and a stock movement dependent upon the H20 chip news
Given Nvidia’s track record, I’m predicting it will beat Wall Street’s earnings estimate.
That said, I think the stock’s movement will largely depend on H20 news and related Q3 guidance. If the news reported on Friday about the company halting production of the H20 is accurate and if we learn from management that no progress has been made in getting China to discontinue its directive, then Nvidia stock could decline — or, at best, be little changed. Good news on this front, however, would likely see the stock gaining.
Regardless of what happens, one quarter is just one quarter. Keep the big picture in mind: Nvidia stock is a multiyear winner, in my view, because the company’s AI infrastructure technology is largely enabling the global AI revolution.