Though President Donald Trump’s April 9 “Liberation Day” tariff offensive sent global markets into chaos and slapped new levies on nearly every U.S. trading partner, one conspicuous exception stood out: Russia.
The decision not to impose new tariffs on a country still sanctioned by much of the West has fueled speculation that China could use its closest geopolitical partner as a workaround to keep its exports flowing.
Newsweek reached out to the White House and Russian and Chinese foreign ministries with emailed requests for comment.
Russia’s Tariff Exemption: A Gift Or Gap?
Trump‘s “Liberation Day” policy, which hiked tariffs across roughly 180 countries and territories, sent U.S. stocks tumbling by more than $5 trillion in just two days. But the Russian Federation—under heavy U.S. sanctions since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine—was left untouched.
Administration officials have cited ongoing U.S. sanctions as a primary reason for Russia’s exclusion from the list.
“We’re not doing business, essentially, with Russia, because they’re at war,” Trump told reporters.
The U.S. imported just $3.5 billion in goods from Russia in 2024, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative—barely 12 percent of what it did in 2021 before the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
But Trump’s economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, told ABC News that the exemption was meant to avoid disrupting negotiations toward a ceasefire. That fits with Trump’s campaign promise to end the war within his first 100 days.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, greets Chinese President Xi Jinping during their bilateral meeting prior to the opening of the BRICS Summit on October 22 2024, in Kazan, Tatarstan Republic, Russia.
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The Quiet Rationale
Bin Yu, political science professor and director of East Asian Studies at Wittenberg University, said the exemption of Russia likely reflected three main factors: the overall low level of trade between the U.S. and Russia after years of sanctions, the role of Russian enriched uranium in U.S. nuclear energy production, and sensitive diplomatic efforts.
“The ongoing U.S.-Russian negotiation on resumption of diplomatic ties is perhaps the most important factor here and the Trump administration does not want to jeopardize the process,” he told Newsweek.
China-Russia Trade: A Deepening Tether
The Russia-China economic relationship has flourished despite the war. Their bilateral trade hit a record $244.8 billion in 2024. But it rose just 1.9 percent after a 26 percent jump in 2023, a sign that sanctions and cross-border payment complications have added friction.
Still, China remains vital to Moscow’s post-sanction survival, with Beijing buying discounted Russian oil and gas, shielding pro-Kremlin narratives on its tightly controlled internet, and exporting dual-use technology. U.S. and European officials have repeatedly accused Chinese companies of helping Russia sustain its military-industrial complex.
This deepening relationship has some Western analysts concerned that China could use Russia’s non-tariffed status to reroute or rebrand goods destined for the United States.
The Transshipment Question
Is Russia a realistic channel for tariff dodging?
Christopher Weafer, CEO of Russia-focused consulting firm Macro-Advisory said Russia lacks the industrial and labor capacity to serve as a manufacturing hub for Chinese exports.
“Russia has been excluded from the tariff because it sells almost no goods which could be made in the United States,” Weafer told Newsweek. But it still provides things the U.S. needs—”titanium, nuclear fuel, fertilizer, and other materials such as platinum.”
If diplomacy holds and a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached, he said, the U.S. could even scale up imports of “critical minerals and heavy oil for the Gulf refineries” from Russia—particularly as tensions with China push Washington to reduce dependence on Beijing.
As for whether China might set up shop in Russia and use the country as a manufacturing base, Weafer pointed out that Russia’s labor force is aging and short on available workers, with an unemployment rate of just over 2 percent.
“Also, while the U.S. is not about to add tariffs to materials it needs from Russia, it would quickly target a shirt made in Russia with Chinese capital,” he added.
Enforcement
The Trump administration also announced tariffs on obscure locations like the Heard and McDonald Islands—uninhabited Australian territories in the Indian Ocean populated only by penguins and seals, arguing that it was necessary to close potential trade gaps that China or others could exploit.
“Weafer noted that Chinese manufacturers had previously routed exports through countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh to avoid earlier U.S. tariffs, and said the administration’s move to include even remote locations like the Heard and McDonald Islands are aimed to close off similar routes this time.
The U.S. imported $1.4 million of “machinery and electrical” goods from Heard Island and McDonald Island in 2022, at least according to world bank export data. The Guardian identified some of these goods as having originated from Austria, based on bills of lading.
Could Russia Shield China’s Economy?
Russian analysts have mixed views on whether China might shift goods to Russia to soften the blow of American tariffs.
Sofia Donets, chief economist at T-Investments, told RBC: “What previously pushed us to rapprochement with China in the form of geopolitical sanctions is now gaining some kind of new breath. The spiral of trade wars pushes us even more into each other’s arms. We definitely did not lose from the first round.”
She added that the relationship has transitioned “to effective competition,” as both sides deepen trade and currency coordination.
Still, Pavel Kuznetsov, vice president of the National Coordination Center for International Business Cooperation, struck a cautious note, saying: “We do not expect a significant increase in exports to Russia or specifically to the BRICS countries from China in the context of a new round of the tariff war between China and the United States.”
BRICS—originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—accounts for a substantial portion of global economic growth.