Sunil Shankar Matkar
October 13, 2024 / 06:44 IST
Sudeep Shah is the Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities
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Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities believes CG Powe is likely to continue its northward journey in the next couple of trading sessions. As the stock is trading at an all-time high level, all the moving averages and momentum-based indicators are suggesting strong bullish momentum. The weekly RSI is in bullish territory,” he reasoned.
Further, according to him, it is the right time to buy Hindalco and National Aluminum Company (NALCO) for the short term. “Both the stocks are trading above their short and long-term moving averages. Also, the momentum indicators and oscillators are also suggesting strong bullish momentum in the stocks,” said the Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities who has over 17 years of experience in the technicals and F&O.
Are you confident that the market is likely to move upward rather than downward, considering the consolidation of the last three days?
The benchmark index Nifty has experienced nearly 6 percent correction from its all-time high, driven by aggressive FII sell-offs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, despite these challenges, Nifty found support at a low of 24,694, and thereafter, it slid into a period of consolidation.
Interestingly, broader market indices like the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Small Cap 100 have significantly outperformed the frontline indices over the past week. Notably, both indices have formed bullish candles with long lower shadows, signaling strong buying interest at lower levels. This suggests that the broader market is poised to outperform in the upcoming trading sessions. Additionally, the Q2FY2025 earnings season is set to gain momentum next week, likely driving stock-specific movements in the market.
Coming to the Nifty, from a technical perspective, Nifty has been trading in a tight range for the past three sessions, leading to a flattening of the 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average). The daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) is also showing signs of indecision as it is trading in a sideways zone as per the RSI range shift rules. As a result, we anticipate that Nifty may continue to consolidate in a narrow range for the next couple of trading sessions.
Talking about levels, the zone of 24,700-24,650 will act as immediate support for the index. On the upside, the zone of 25,250-25,300 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above or below these zones could result in a strong directional move for the index.
If the index slips below the level of 24,650, then the 100-day EMA will act as the next crucial support, which is currently placed at the 24,430 level. On the upside, if the index sustains above the level of 25,300, then we may witness a sharp pullback rally upto the level of 25,600, followed by 25,850 in the short term.
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Do the charts convince you that Bank Nifty is marching towards 53,000 next week?
From an all-time high, the Bank Nifty has witnessed a correction of over 4,000 points in just 7 trading sessions. However, it marked a low of 50,194 on October 07 and thereafter witnessed a pullback rally of nearly 1,000 points. Finally, it ended the week at 51,172 level with a minor loss of 0.56 percent.
On a weekly scale, it has formed a small body candle with a long lower shadow. The long lower shadow indicates buying interest at lower levels. Along with this pullback rally, the index has reclaimed its 100-day EMA level. The daily RSI is currently in the sideways zone as per the RSI range shift rule. Hence, we believe the index is likely to witness consolidation in the next couple of trading sessions.
Going ahead, the 50-day EMA zone of 51,700-51,800 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above the level of 51,800 will lead to an extension of the pullback rally upto the level of 52,500, followed by 53,100 in the short term. On the downside, the zone of 50,700-50,600 will act as immediate support for the index. Any sustainable move below 50,600 will lead to resume its southward journey. In that case, it is likely to test the level of 50,000, followed by 49,600 in the short term.
Considering the gap-up opening with robust volumes, do you see Bandhan Bank decisively breaking out of the long downward-sloping resistance trendline?
Yes, Bandhan Bank is likely to give downward-sloping trendline breakout in the next couple of trading sessions. On Friday, the stock has surged by over 12 percent. Along with this rise, the stock has witnessed a robust volume of over 7 times of 50 days average volume. This indicates strong buying interest by market participants. The 50-day average volume was 1.75 lakh, while on Friday, the stock has registered a total volume of 12.97 lakh.
Further, it has surged above its short and long-term moving averages. Furthermore, the daily RSI also surged above 60 mark. Hence, we believe it is likely to give a breakout in the short term.
Is CG Power and Industrial Solutions appearing overbought?
Technically, the stock has given horizontal trendline breakout on a daily scale. This breakout is confirmed by robust volume. As the stock is trading at an all-time high level, all the moving averages and momentum-based indicators are suggesting strong bullish momentum. The weekly RSI is in bullish territory.
Hence, we believe the stock is likely to continue its northward journey in the next couple of trading sessions. On the downside, the zone of Rs 820-810 will act as immediate support for the stock.
Is it the right time to buy Hindalco Industries and NALCO?
Yes, both the stocks are trading above their short and long-term moving averages. Also, the momentum indicators and oscillators are also suggesting strong bullish momentum in the stock. Hence, we believe, it’s right time to buy Hindalco and National Aluminium Company for the short term.
Q: What are your top two bets for the short term?
The stock has formed Shooting Star candlestick pattern on June 25 and thereafter witnessed a correction. Interestingly, during the period of correction, the volume activity was mostly below average, which indicates routine decline after as sharp upside rally. The correction was halted near 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level and thereafter witnessed resumed its northward journey. The reversal from the support zone is confirmed by the relatively higher volume. The momentum indicators and oscillators also support the overall bullish chart structure. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 530-525 level with a stop-loss of Rs 505. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 560, followed by Rs 570 in the short term.
The stock has given a downward sloping trendline breakout on a daily scale. This breakout is confirmed by robust volume. In addition, it has formed a sizeable bullish candle on breakout day, which adds strength to the breakout. The momentum indicators and oscillators also support the overall bullish chart structure. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 800-790 level with a stop-loss of Rs 770. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 840, followed by Rs 880 in the short term.
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