Sugar prices fell for a fourth straight session around 2% DoD to close at US¢22/lb yesterday on prospects of rains in Brazil. The top sugar production region, the Center-South of Brazil, expects light showers over the coming days, which means soil moisture could slightly improve the germination. However, raw sugar prices have increased by around 14% in the last month, due to an outbreak of fires in the country. Speculators have maintained their long-term net-long position. However, this could change over the coming days as rains forecast in Brazil, higher-than-expected sucrose content per hectare in CS-Brazil, and well above the average rainfall in India and Thailand (completion of the monsoon period) might weigh on the prices.
The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly WASDE report tomorrow. The initial market expectations suggest that the agency could decrease its US soybean ending stocks by 4m bushels to 546m bushels, while trimming its corn ending stock estimates by 69m bushels to 1,988m bushels. In global supply, the agency could slightly revise its Argentina corn estimates to 50.8mt (-0.2mt), while keeping soybean output estimates unchanged at 51mt. Similarly, Brazilian corn and soybean estimates could be trimmed slightly by 0.4mt each to 126.6mt and 168.6mt respectively. Meanwhile, global ending stocks for corn could decline from 308.4mt estimated in September to 307.3mt, while for soybeans the ending stock estimates could remain unchanged at 134.6mt.
Brazil’s total coffee exports rose 33% YoY to 4.5m bags (60kg) in September, according to data released by Cecafe Group. The group said that the Arabica coffee exports rose 32% YoY to 3.2m bags, while Robusta coffee exports surged 41% YoY to 911.9k bags for the period. The overall rise in coffee exports could be largely attributed to the rise in demand for robusta coffee beans across the globe, despite prices moving higher amid expectations for a supply deficit this year.
The latest data from Industry Group APIC shows that Brazil’s cocoa grindings fell 14% YoY to 55.3kt in the third quarter of 2024. Similarly, the cocoa industry received 66.6kt of cocoa beans for the period mentioned above, down from 69.6kt seen a year ago. The decline in grindings was largely driven by the considerable crop losses and lower quality of beans due to crop diseases. Meanwhile, cumulative cocoa grindings have dropped to 169.7kt (Vs 190.4kt) in Jan’24-Sep’24.