This election isn’t over yet but there are some out there already speculating about who might inhabit the White House in 2028 and beyond.
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, known by many as the “Nostradamus” of U.S. elections for his impressive track record predicting the outcome, has revealed who he thinks the future presidential candidates may be after former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Well obviously on the Republican side [Ohio Sen.] JD Vance is angling to be the future of the party. He’ll obviously be challenged again by Nikki Haley,” Lichtman said, replying to a question during one of his regular YouTube livestreams.
Vance is Trump’s running mate in the 2024 election, effectively heir apparent to the Republican Party leader, and the least-experienced vice presidential nominee in nearly 90 years. Former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador Haley, meanwhile, ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination this year against Trump, along with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Lichtman described him as “potential candidate” in the future.
Historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman answers questions during an interview with AFP in Bethesda, Maryland, on September 7, 2024. Lichtman created a model using 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election.
Pedro Ugarte/AFP via Getty Images
“On the Democratic side, obviously [Minnesota Gov.] Tim Walz is going to be a contender,” the historian continued.
Walz was raised from relative political obscurity after Harris named him as her running mate in August.
The professor said he had also been touting New Jersey Sen. Corey Booker “for some time.”
Lichtman added that Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who many talked up as contender to replace President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket this year, as well as a potential VP pick for Harris, was “another very appealing figure among the Democrats.”
He cautioned though that candidates can “come out of nowhere.”
“Particularly among the Democrats, you never know,” Lichtman told viewers.
“No one ever heard of Barack Obama until he made his 2004 convention speech. No one ever heard of Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton,” he said.
Newsweek has contacted Lichtman for comment via email outside of standard working hours.
Lichtman has officially called the 2024 election for Harris, based on his prediction system.
His model—”The Keys to the White House”—hinges on 13 keys, which evaluate the standing of the incumbent party based on a variety of factors, including the economy, foreign policy and domestic politics, including social unrest, major scandals and the presence of a major third-party candidate.
If six or more of the 13 keys—all true/false statements—are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or fewer be false, it is expected to win.
The 13 keys, as set out by the historian in a 2012 article for the Social Education journal, are these:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
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