Presidential historian Allan Lichtman has suggested that polling is underestimating support for the Democratic Party and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Replying to a question during one of his regular YouTube livestreams on whether reports that the Democratic Party was pulling ahead in terms of mail-in voting in some states (such as Pennsylvania, a key swing state) could be a sign they could win them, Lichtman said:
“I can’t say it proves that states would be blue, but it’s certainly a sign that it’s likely that these states would be blue,” the American University professor said.
“The polls in 2016 underestimated Republican voting strength. It’s my view based on what I saw from 2022-2024 that the polls are now underestimating Democratic voting strength.”
“As we saw in the special election for the congressional seat in New York held by the disgraced George Santos, the Democrat outperformed the poll right before the election by seven points.”
Vice President Kamala Harris smiles during a presidential debate with former President Donald Trump at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on September 10, 2024. Historian Allan Lichtman has said polls may be underestimating Democratic voting strength.
Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images
Santos, a former Republican representative, pleaded guilty to two charges relating to campaign fraud in August. He represented the Third Congressional District of New York. Following a special election for his seat, he was replaced by Democratic Representative Tom Suozzi, who had previously held the seat.
Lichtman added: “Even if the polls are off by a point or two, the Democrats are going to do a point or two better than the polls—they will sweep Pennsylvania.”
Newsweek has contacted Lichtman for comment via email.
The latest aggregation of national polls currently show Harris narrowly leading the former president in the race for the White House.
According to FiveThirtyEight, just 2.4 points separate the candidates as of Wednesday morning.
Lichtman has earned the moniker “Nostradamus” for his impressive track record predicting the outcome of presidential elections using his model—”The Keys to the White House”—though the system is not without its critics.
Lichtman has already predicted that Harris will win the 2024 presidential election, based on this model.
His system hinges on 13 keys, which evaluate the standing of the incumbent party based on a variety of factors, including the economy, foreign policy and domestic politics, including social unrest, major scandals and the presence of a major third-party candidate.
If six or more of the 13 keys—all true/false statements—are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or fewer be false, it is expected to win.
The 13 keys, as set out by the historian in a 2012 article for the Social Education journal, are these:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
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