Reviving and restoring America’s migrating manufacturing base was one of the marquee pledges of President Donald Trump’s successful 2024 campaign. But this renaissance has yet to materialize and certain data suggests that the long-term decline may have hastened under his watch.
When pressed for the rationale for his tariffs, and justification for the economic trade-offs of higher prices and potential supply chain challenges, the administration has maintained that these are “incentivizing manufacturing on American soil” by raising the costs of foreign-sourcing, and in doing so “bringing manufacturing jobs back to America.”
And some successes have been observed, with a cascade of billion-dollar pledges from companies including Apple and Toyota Motor to expand their U.S. production—proof, the White House says, that “America’s manufacturing sector is surging forward with unprecedented momentum.”
Jobs Tell a Different Story
But beyond these high-profile announcements and whatever boom they may herald, on the employment front, the president has presided over a manufacturing labor market that is growing weaker, rather than stronger.
In its latest report, released Thursday after a weekslong delay caused by the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double what analysts had penciled in and quelling immediate fears that the labor market was giving recession signals.
And while some sectors such as health care saw robust growth, manufacturing shed another 6,000 jobs in September, for a total loss of 58,000 since April. This contraction began prior to Trump’s second term but accelerated when the president put his tariff plans into high gear with the “Liberation Day” announcements.
“The president has put tariffs on the whole economy in an effort to revive manufacturing,” wrote economist Justin Wolfers in response to the latest drop. “It’s not working.”
Jared Bernstein, who chaired Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, called the trend “uniquely bad,” and one which “Trump’s fingerprints are all over.”
“September is the fifth month in a row of manufacturing job losses, and employment in the sector is down 94,000 over the past year,” he wrote on Thursday. “We haven’t seen such trends outside of recessions for years.”
“Jobs numbers always also get hit when the economy turns down, and new U.S. tariffs may be causing instability,” Diane Coyle, an economist and professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge, told Newsweek.
In a response to Newsweek, the White House noted that September’s jobs report also showed a “robust gain of 19,000 construction jobs—indicative of how these investments are materializing to build America’s manufacturing renaissance.”
It added: “Capital spending is soaring, real manufacturing output is at record highs, and trillions in investments to make and hire in America are flowing in thanks to President Trump’s tariffs and pro-growth policies.”
Voices from the Factory Floor
Beyond the jobs numbers from the Department of Labor—uniquely backward-looking thanks to the shutdown-induced data blackout—more up-to-date figures paint an increasingly grim picture of America’s industrial base. The ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a monthly poll serving as a pulse check for the sector, dropped in October and has remained below the 50-point threshold signaling contraction for every month since February.
This weakness preceded Trump’s return to office. The Manufacturing PMI has weakened in 34 months of the last five years for an overall downward slide, and the final stretch of Biden’s tenure saw dozens of sub-50 scores. But survey responses reveal the unique challenges facing manufacturers in 2025, which largely trace back to policies enacted by this administration.
“Business continues to remain difficult, as customers are canceling and reducing orders due to uncertainty in the global economic environment and regarding the ever-changing tariff landscape,” wrote one chemical products firm.
“Tariffs continue to be a large impact to our business. The products we import are not readily manufactured in the U.S., so attempts to reshore have been unsuccessful,” a machinery manufacturer responded, adding that “prices on all products have gone up” and that it plans to “pass along what costs we can to our customers.”
“Despite his wanting to stimulate manufacturing, Trump’s tariffs have increased the costs of some inputs, and the frequency and almost randomness with which tariffs are changed have created great uncertainty,” L. Alan Winters, international trade expert and professor of economics at the University of Sussex Business School, told Newsweek. “Hence firms are not keen to invest in any process that includes foreign inputs.”
“Tariffs have been roiling the sector for much of this year,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, told Reuters. “The comments from individual respondents suggest that firms are exhausted by all of the back and forth on tariffs since the beginning of April and are suffering mightily as their customers have pulled back significantly.”
Economists have long contended that restoring America’s former manufacturing prowess may be a near impossible task, given structural issues such as worker shortages, skills gaps and a now unprepared domestic supply chain.
“The bad news is that in the U.S. (and elsewhere) the solid middle class jobs that used to be available have not been replaced, communities have declined, and the nation has lost the engineering know-how associated with manufacturing,” said Professor Coyle. And while reshoring manufacturing activity is, in her words, a “good aim,” the relentless tide of automation means that bringing factories back may not translate into a revival of manufacturing employment as the administration hopes.
But a recent survey of Ohio manufacturers by the nonprofit consulting group Magnet, which its CEO Ethan Karp called a “microcosm of what’s playing out nationwide,” found that more anticipate a positive impact on sales than negative thanks to Trump’s duties—24 percent to 18—and 66 percent project growth in 2026.
“Hurting some, helping others” is how Karp characterized the impact of Trump’s policies on American manufacturing in 2025. But at least for now, he concluded, “losses outweigh the gains.”
Update 11/21/25 9:18 a.m. ET: This article was updated with a response from the White House.