Why high interest rates and rising oil prices are shaking the market despite receding rate hike expectations following the US employment report slowdownNVIDIA hits record highs while EVs and HVs diverge—latest trends and market risks for AI and automotive stocks1. Current State of the US Stock Market2. Results and Interpretation of the September US Employment Report
Key Numerical Indicators
Non-farm payrolls: Increased by 29,000 from the previous month (significantly below the expected 85,000 increase).
Downward revisions for past periods: August (from +162,000 to +133,000) and July combined for a total downward revision of 60,000.
Unemployment rate and wages: The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings were up 3.0% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021.
Market Reception
Lower expectations for rate hikes: Following the employment slowdown, the probability of an October rate hike according to CME FedWatch fell from approximately 36% the previous week to 17%.
Gradual slowdown (soft landing path): The household survey showed an increase of over 400,000 in the number of employed persons, and the rise in the unemployment rate is mainly due to an increase in labor market participants (job seekers). The average monthly employment increase over the last three months (51,000) is at a level that maintains supply-demand balance, and it is viewed as a state of “slow cooling rather than collapse.”
3. Interest Rates, Crude Oil, and Future Schedule4. Trends in Notable Stocks and SectorsSemiconductors and AI-Related
SOX Index: Rose 2.4%, marking a three-month high.
NVIDIA: Rose 1.3% and hit a new all-time high. Its forward P/E ratio is approximately 16.7x, which is below its 10-year average (approx. 35x), leading to suggestions that it is undervalued. There are also reports that the Chinese government may allow Alibaba and ByteDance to purchase new chips.
AMD / Teradyne / ON Semiconductor: AMD hit a record high during trading hours (+2.9%). Teradyne rose 8% following the announcement of its next-generation high-speed memory testing equipment. ON Semiconductor rose 6% on a revised acquisition proposal for Synaptics.
Cerebras: Fell about 20% for the week (hitting a record low) following reports that NVIDIA chips were adopted for OpenAI’s high-speed mode and the expiration of the lock-up period. However, it rebounded in after-hours trading following Sam Altman’s comment about them being a “close partner.”
Seagate / Western Digital: Following reports that Toshiba will invest in its Philippine plant to double its HDD production capacity for AI data centers by fiscal year 2027 (aiming for a market share of up to 30%), concerns over margin compression due to the resolution of supply shortages caused both companies to fall 10%.
Automotive/EV / Hybrid
Tesla: Q3 deliveries reached 486,532 units (+1.3% QoQ, over 20,000 units above expectations), leading to a 4.7% rise in stock price (driven by Europe, -2% YoY).
Rivian: Q3 deliveries reached 19,248 units, a sharp increase from the previous quarter (12,194 units), exceeding expectations.
Hybrid Vehicles (US Market): Hybrid demand remains robust in the US. US market share in H1 2026 is 1st Toyota (44.8%), 2nd Hyundai Motor Group (18.4%), 3rd Honda (17.4%). A structure where Korean manufacturers are filling the gaps left by Japanese firms like Nissan, which have limited lineups.
Other Individual Stocks
SpaceX: Following the success of Starship’s first revenue flight, the stock price surged 7.3% ($158.96).
Microsoft: Announced an affordable and high-precision proprietary voice AI model (+0.9%).
Nike: Fell 3.6% due to struggles in the Chinese market and a revenue decline outlook.
Lennar (Major Homebuilder): Despite a 2.8% drop in stock price due to a tough housing market caused by high 30-year mortgage rates (7.3%), Berkshire Hathaway continues to increase its stake (holding ratio 11.2%).
5. European and French Political and Fiscal RisksEmployment slowdown, rising interest rates, and intensifying French protests—three concerns the market faces and stocks to watch#HighSchoolStudents#Toyota#Nissan#France#VehicleDelivery#Honda#StocksToWatch#Nasdaq#StockPrice#CrudeOil